Market Observation: The Impact Of Tariff Policy Continues And The Fluctuation Of Internal And External Cotton Prices Intensifies

In April, the US government announced that it would impose reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners, with the largest and continuous increase in tariffs on China, which had a negative impact on China's cotton textile exports. China's cotton price index fell sharply in the first ten days, hitting a new low in four years; Later, with the introduction of counter-measures and a series of policies to expand domestic demand and promote the transformation of foreign trade into domestic sales by relevant departments, stability factors were injected into the market. In addition, the textile industry was still in the traditional peak season, production remained at a high level, and domestic cotton prices maintained a small fluctuation. The international cotton price has been greatly affected by the tariff policy, and the difference between internal and external prices has narrowed.

　 1、 Changes in spot prices at home and abroad

（1） China's cotton price index stabilized after falling

In early April, China's cotton price index (CCIndex3128B) fell to a four-year low of 14144 yuan/ton under the influence of continuous tariff increases between China and the United States. Then the relevant departments released positive signals such as stabilizing the economy and the market. At the same time, the expectation of the United States to adjust tariff policy was strengthened, and the macro risk was weakened. China's cotton price index remained volatile. In April, the average monthly price of China's cotton price index (CCIndex3128B) was 14367 yuan/ton, down 518 yuan month on month, down 2640 yuan year on year.

（2） The quotation of long staple cotton is stable and rising

In April, the demand for domestic high count yarn orders still did not improve, and cotton enterprises purchased on demand. However, due to the high cost of long staple cotton planting and limited income, it is expected that the area and output will continue to decrease this year, and the price will rise instead. At the end of the month, 137 grade long staple cotton was quoted at 23180 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan month on month, 8997 yuan higher than China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex3128B), and the price difference was 1478 yuan higher than that of the previous month. The average monthly transaction price of 137 grade long staple cotton was 23188 yuan/ton, up 918 yuan month on month and down 7502 yuan year on year.

（3） Tariff policy disturbs international cotton price to fluctuate significantly

At the beginning of April, the US "equivalent tariff" policy was announced, and the market was in a strong risk aversion mood, with ICE cotton futures falling as low as 60.8 cents/pound; Subsequently, the policy of "tariff parity" was adjusted. At the same time, affected by the reduction of American cotton planting area and drought, the cotton in ICE period rebounded significantly. In the late ten days, the U.S. government said that the tariff to China might decline significantly, and the market sentiment improved. The highest price of cotton in ICE period rose to 69.75 cents/pound; At the end of the month, the GDP of the United States in the first quarter fell year on year, the dollar rose, and many places in the United States welcomed rainfall to alleviate the drought. Many factors affected the ICE cotton season to fall to 66 cents/pound. The monthly average settlement price of the main contract of ICE cotton was 66.78 cents/pound, up 1.3% month on month. The monthly average price of China's import cotton price index FCIndexM was 77.48 cents/pound, up 1.58 cents or 2.1% month on month; At the end of the month, 76.17 cents/pound, down 1.23 cents month on month. The 1% tariff discount was 13549 yuan/ton, 634 yuan lower than China's cotton price index (CCIndex3128B) in the same period. The difference between internal and external cotton prices was 580 yuan lower than that at the end of last month.

　　 （4） Cotton textile production remains high, yarn prices continue to fall

The cotton textile industry was still in the traditional peak season that month, but due to the impact of the external macro environment, the downstream wait-and-see mood was high, and new orders were not significantly released. The enterprise started up to maintain a high level, and the inventory of finished products had an increasing trend. The confidence in the future market was insufficient, and the raw material procurement was more cautious, focusing on buying as needed. Pure cotton yarn (20235, -80.00, -0.39%) KC32S transaction price at the end of the month was 20410 yuan/ton, down 630 yuan month on month; Combed JC40S transaction price at the end of the month was 23400 yuan/ton, down 530 yuan month on month; The transaction price of polyester staple fiber at the end of the month was 6340 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan month on month; The closing price of viscose staple fiber at the end of the month was 13300 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan month on month.

　　 2、 Factors affecting cotton prices at home and abroad

（1） Launching of textile and clothing docking activity of "China Travel of Foreign Trade Products"

On April 24, the national textile and clothing docking activity of "China Travel of Foreign Trade Products" was held in Xiamen. The China Cotton Association, together with the China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, the China Textile Industry Federation, and the China Chain Store Association, jointly issued an industry proposal to advocate the textile foreign trade industry: jointly create a new network of "international manufacturing+local channels" with domestic channels; Dig deeply into the connotation of Chinese culture and realize brand premium with cultural penetration; Let the quality of foreign trade sink to the end, and help to upgrade the national life; Strengthen mutual recognition of domestic and foreign rules, and enhance the global textile discourse.

　 （2） Year-on-year growth of textile and clothing exports

According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in April 2025, China's export of textiles and clothing reached US $24.19 billion, up 3.4% month on month and 1.1% year on year; Among them, textile exports reached US $12.58 billion, up 3.2% year on year; Clothing exports reached US $11.61 billion, down 1.2% year on year. From January to April 2025, China's export of textiles and clothing reached 90.47 billion US dollars, up 1.1% year on year; Among them, textile exports reached 45.85 billion US dollars, up 3.8% year on year; Garment exports reached US $44.62 billion, down 1.5% year on year.