After The Debt To Equity Swap, There Is An Increase In The Number Of Banks' Troubled Capital Occupancy.

The initial scale of debt to equity swap has been initially determined to be 1 trillion yuan, and it is expected to dissolve the potential bad assets of banks of about 1 trillion yuan in 3 years or even less. This means that the debt to equity swap which is highly expected is expected to officially start.

It is reported that the first trillion debt to equity investors are focused on enterprises with potential value and temporary difficulties, mainly state-owned enterprises. This is consistent with management's consistent style and will. At present, the state-owned enterprises which have been operating well have encountered unprecedented difficulties. Profits decline, market downturn and burden become heavier and heavier. Among them, the pressure of bank loans to repay principal and interest is huge.

It is said that this trillion yuan debt to equity target enterprises in the bank account mostly reflected concern loans or even normal loans, rather than bad loans. In any case, they are close to the types of loans that form bad loans.

Bank data show that at the end of the fourth quarter of 2015, the balance of non-performing loans of China's commercial banks was 12744 billion yuan, and the non-performing loan ratio 1.67% 。 If 1 trillion yuan is converted into debt to equity swap, then the balance of non-performing loans will drop to 274 billion 400 million yuan. 0.366% In the world bank, the NPL rate is the lowest, and it is the best in the world. Bank 。 If the debt to equity swap is concerned about loans, then the national banking industry concerned about the balance of loans at the end of 2015. Two point eight nine Trillion yuan will fall to One point eight nine Trillion yuan.

However, this decline or only the surface "digital" looks very beautiful and bright, and the problems and hidden dangers behind it must not be ignored. This kind of hidden danger is mainly the damage to commercial banks, that is, the sequelae left by state-owned enterprises transferring risks to banks.

According to the provisions of the "capital management measures of commercial banks", the risk weight of commercial banks' equity investment in industrial and commercial enterprises is usually 400% within the period of disposal (usually 2 years) stipulated by law, while the average risk weight of commercial bonds held by commercial banks is 100%. Once the disposal period is over, the weight will increase exponentially. At that time, the capital occupation level will be bigger. The expansion of denominator will reduce the capital adequacy ratio and increase the pressure of supplementary capital.

Enterprises transfer risks to banks. Once risks are exposed, banks lose more. In extreme cases, it will even give businesses more means to avoid bank debts. From this point of view, whether the scale of the first debt to equity swap needs to be as big as 1 trillion is really questionable.

More importantly, the current China's economy In addition to slowing global growth, another big "hidden danger" is the risk of excessive leverage in the whole economy. Once the high leverage economy comes along with the economic slowdown, the risk will be more easily detonated. Because of this, deleveraging or reducing the leveraging of the real economy has become one of the most important tasks of China's economic transformation and structural adjustment.

It is imminent to reduce the leverage ratio of the real economy. How to reduce it? Turning bank loans into banks' shareholding stocks, that is, the so-called debt to equity swap, is now hot. It seems to be a magic weapon or life-saving straw to reduce the high leverage of the real economy. But we must treat the bank loans in a rational and objective way.

After the securitization of non-performing loans is disposed, the creditor becomes a shareholder. After the economic condition of the enterprise is improved, the funds can be recovered through listing, transfer or enterprise repurchase. We must realize that Debt to equity swap The target should be temporary difficulties and revived enterprises. Otherwise, it will lead directly to bad loans and even to avoid bank debts.

At the same time, loans and debts should be transformed into shares of enterprises. Because the bank's capital comes from the people and enterprises, according to the requirements of the commercial bank law, banks can not invest in non banking enterprises, and can not directly hold shares of general enterprises.

That is to say, any enterprise, including a bank, must invest in its own capital, rather than invest it in borrowed money. This is mainly from the perspective of rigid payment risk. For example, the biggest difference between loan and share is that the loan has a definite return period. One of the factors determining the time limit is the duration of the deposits of the people and enterprises. Equity is equity investment, and there is no return period.

If there is no public listing, there is no two level market transfer channel, such equity will always be in hand, liquidity will be very poor. If the loan is converted into equity, then a corresponding portion of the maturity deposit will be needed to cope with the rigid payment. If a large area of loan debt is converted into equity, it will endanger the bank's payment security.

Therefore, leveraging loans and debts into equity should be an expedient measure, rather than a radical cure. It should be tried cautiously and in a small scope, but not large and large-scale.